2025 is shaping up to be a promising year for the Philippine economy, with renewed opportunities and a rebound in consumer spending despite potential risks and challenges.
This optimistic outlook comes from Unicapital Group (Unicapital), a leading independent financial services provider and investment house, through its securities brokerage arm, Unicapital Securities, Incorporated (USI).
Unicapital emphasized that the Philippines is poised to remain one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies, even amid global economic pressures and policy shifts following the new U.S. administration’s leadership.
Election Spending to Drive Sectoral Gains
With the midterm elections approaching, campaign-related spending is visibly on the rise—evident in tarpaulins, political advertisements, and large billboards across the country. Historically, election periods spur a short-term rally in the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), fueled by increased liquidity and market optimism.
Key industries expected to benefit from election-driven spending include consumer goods, construction and infrastructure, as well as media and telecommunications. Consumer companies, in particular, typically experience a 5% to 10% increase in revenues as heightened spending fuels demand for essential and lifestyle products.
“We anticipate significant election-related spending at both the local and national levels leading up to the May midterm elections,” said Wendy Estacio-Cruz, USI Head of Research. “This, coupled with easing inflation, will boost household consumption and contribute to the economy’s growth this year.”
Policy Shifts and Domestic Opportunities
Unicapital projects a 6.3% GDP growth rate in 2025, supported by continued monetary easing. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to maintain a measured approach to interest rate cuts, depending on developments from the U.S. Federal Reserve and global trade dynamics.
Despite external risks such as geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and supply chain disruptions, domestic opportunities and government policies are expected to balance these challenges. The Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act is anticipated to enhance the Philippine equity market by attracting both domestic and foreign investments.
During an industry event, BPI Lead Economist Emilio “Jun” Neri provided further insights, noting that global economic trends—including the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House—could influence local market conditions. He also pointed out that external supply shocks in food and oil prices remain key considerations for sustained growth.
Stock Market Projections and Key Growth Sectors
Unicapital forecasts a PSEi target of 7,800, driven by an anticipated 10% earnings growth rate in the stock market. Lower interest rates and stronger liquidity are expected to benefit banking, consumer, and real estate sectors.
The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market continues to thrive, offering high yields, while the gaming sector remains on an upward trajectory, with expansion in both online casinos and international markets like Brazil.
USI President & CEO Ben Thomas Pañares reaffirmed Unicapital’s commitment to supporting stakeholders and regulators in fostering economic growth.
“USI is dedicated to enhancing our services and offerings to better serve stakeholders and regulators. Our mission remains clear: to support mid-cap markets and emerging businesses while equipping stakeholders with the knowledge and tools to achieve financial success,” Pañares stated.
Meanwhile, Converge ICT VP-Head of Investor Relations Owen Kiefer Ocampo highlighted the growing demand for prepaid fiber internet, reflecting Filipinos’ increasing preference for affordable and flexible connectivity. With this trend, Converge aims to expand its reach into new residential markets and introduce innovative enterprise solutions to sustain double-digit revenue growth.
A Strategic Year for Investments
“With 2025 poised to be a favorable year for the Philippine economy, Unicapital sees this as an opportune time for investments, paving the way for the country’s post-pandemic recovery,” Estacio-Cruz noted.
Unicapital believes that financial literacy and resilient industries are the backbone of a thriving economy. By helping businesses and investors make informed decisions, the company remains steadfast in its mission to shape a brighter economic future for the Philippines.
